Rhondda Cynon Taff — The Covid conundrum
In early May there were headlines of Rhondda Cynon Taff having the most coronavirus cases in Wales. This was based on the number of cases for every 100,000 people living in each area. This measure has its flaw in that if Area A has more tests than Area B then you are more likely to have more cases. My preference is to look at the rate of tests carried out and how many are positive.
Almost six months on and Rhondda Cynon Taff is yet again at the top of an unwanted chart — the area in Wales with the biggest Covid-19 issue. As I live in the area I have taken a look at the publicly available data to see what is going on.
Testing and cases
During the first wave of the pandemic and the immediate period after there was only targeted testing. So we cannot compare the number of cases now to back then. If you look at the positivity rate since March you can see the effect of targeted testing.
In early April around 500 tests were carried out over a 7 day period and at the height of the pandemic just over half came back positive. Fast forward to the start of September and the number of tests increased sharply. In the 7 days to 14 September there were almost 6,000 tests — a twelve-fold increase on the positivity peak in April.
A few days later, the leader of the council, Andrew Morgan wrote “Following a continued rise in confirmed cases over the last 14 days, further interventions are unfortunately now necessary to help control the spread of the virus in Rhondda Cynon Taff”. Of course the cases rose — there was a massive increase in testting. Three days on from the testing peak, Rhondda Cynon Taff was the second area in Wales to enter into local restrictions. Despite the rise in testing there is evidence that Covid-19 was becoming more of an issue at the start of September as the rate of tests coming back positive started increasing.
Were the local restrictions effective?
This is difficult to answer with no test to know what would have happened had restrictions not been imposed on the residents of Rhondda Cynon Taff. When announced the purpose was to reverse the rising trend. On that measure the local restrictions failed. Around three weeks in to the restrictions the pace of increase in the rate of tests coming back positive seemed to worsen.
But it is possible the policy was trying to put a plaster on a wound that needed stitches. I wrote that survey data suggests two-thirds of Covid-19 tests on randomly selected people came back positive when the person had no symptoms. Replicating this across the authority then residents could have been going about their daily lives spreading the virus unknowingly, while those with symptoms were being picked up and told to isolate. Not long after the restrictions Covid-19 cases started rising in neighbouring authorities and remember there were no restrictions on travelling for work.
Where are the hotspots in the authority?
Most areas within Rhondda Cynon Taff have seen increases in cases over the past 7 days, with the exception of Pentre and Treforest. Penrhiwceibr (92 cases), Mountain Ash (64 cases) and Abercynon (63 cases) top the unwanted Covid-19 chart. All three areas are next to each other showing a cluster effect. While 13 cases in Treforest is the lowest in the authority, this is still three times higher than the highest area in Pembrokeshire.
Many people will point to deprivation and fewer jobs that can be done from home a key factor in the high case numbers in Rhondda Cynon Taff.
So what next?
The Royal Glamorgan hospital within the authority has seen a large spike in deaths related to Covid-19. Data transparency means it is not possible for onlookers to understand how much this is down to the virus spreading in the community resulting in hospitalisations, or how much is down to patients catching the virus while in hospital. We know the latter has increased significantly over the past month and for each and every person lost, it is a family tragedy.
The Welsh Government will be hoping the fire-break running until November 9th will reverse the growing trend of rapid spread of Covid-19. But we must not forget the economic considerations, with at least 30,000 people losing their job in Wales following the first lockdown in March. A policy to save lives may detrimentally impact on many others. It is a tough balancing act which only time will tell if the decisions were right.
